Saturday, November 02, 2024  |

By Thomas Hauser | 

Is Canelo Slipping?

Above: Canelo Alvarez still rules the 168-pound division, but there are many who want the crown. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

A MYTHICAL 168-POUND TOURNAMENT TO ANSWER ONE QUESTION: WHO IS THE BEST SUPER MIDDLEWEIGHT IN THE WORLD?

Over the years, I’ve conducted a series of polls to establish credible rankings for fighters in various weight divisions. I list the top fighters in a given division and ask what the results would be if each of these fighters fought all of the others in a round-robin tournament.

Now The Ring is turning its attention to boxing’s super middleweight division. I’ve selected 10 fighters. Listed alphabetically, they are Canelo Alvarez, Demetrius Andrade, David Benavidez, Edgar Berlanga, Jermall Charlo, Christian Mbilli, David Morrell, Jaime Munguia, Diego Pacheco and Caleb Plant. In reality, a round-robin tournament among them could never happen. It would require unmakeable matches and 45 separate fights. But 18 of the most knowledgeable people in boxing agreed to predict the outcome of these hypothetical fights.



The poll is based on how good these fighters are now. Not how good they were a year ago or how good they might be in the future.

Undefeated Christian Mbilli has been building a name for himself in Canada with one whirlwind performance after another. (Photo by Mathieu Belanger/Getty Images)

The electors brought varying perspectives to their task. Four matchmakers – Bruce Trampler, Ron Katz, Eric Bottjer and Mike Marchionte – participated. They were joined by manager Dave McWater; fighters Gerry Cooney and Matthew Macklin; trainer Pat Burns; cornerman Russ Anber; historian and former manager Craig Hamilton; historian and referee Adam Pollack; ring announcer David Diamante; and six members of the media – Matt Christie, Tris Dixon, Doug Fischer, Tom Gerbasi, Rick Reeno and Joe Santoliquito.

One elector said that he hadn’t seen enough of Diego Pacheco to feel comfortable predicting the outcome of his fights. A weighted average of the other electors’ picks was used to fill in the Pacheco line on that elector’s ballot.

Some of the predictions were returned before Edgar Berlanga fought Padraig McCrory on February 24 and were conditional on Berlanga winning that fight (which he did).

There were 45 fights in the hypothetical tournament with 18 electors predicting the outcome of each fight. This means that 810 predictions were entered into the database. Fighters were awarded one point for each win and a half-point for each draw (too close to call). 

A perfect score (all 18 electors predicting that the same fighter would win all nine of his fights) would have been 162 points. The order of finish and point totals are:

 

#1 David Benavidez150.5 points

#2 Canelo Alvarez144

#3 David Morrell118.5

#4 Jaime Munguia94.5

#5 Caleb Plant62.5

#6 Demetrius Andrade — 61.5

#7 Jermall Charlo — 60

#8 Christian Mbilli — 56.5

#9 Diego Pacheco — 39

#10 Edgar Berlanga — 23

 

The matchup scores (click the chart for a larger version):

Eight of the 18 electors thought that Benavidez would win all nine of his fights. Canelo and Morrell each had three electors who saw things unanimously their way.

Ten of the 18 electors chose Benavidez in a matchup against Canelo. Five chose Canelo and three called that fight too close to call. 

Fourteen electors chose Benevidez over Morrell and four chose Morrell over Benavidez. 

Eleven electors chose Canelo over Morrell, six chose Morrell over Canelo, and one said that fight is too close to call.

Comments from the electors included:

* “There are some awesome fights here.”

* “I’m having a problem because I’m asking myself, ‘Who did these guys beat?’ Canelo has a lot of signature wins. And I give Benavidez credit for beating Andrade and Plant. Now go down the rest of your list. Andrade beat nobody. Berlanga beat nobody. Charlo beat a shot Sergiy Derevyanchenko. Mbilli beat nobody. Morrell, nobody. Munguia beat Derevyanchenko and a shot John Ryder. Pacheco, nobody. Plant, nobody.”

David Morrell (right, vs. Sena Agbeko) is far from a household name, but he got a lot of respect from the electors. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

* “I’m not sure how to process Benavidez-Andrade. Is Benavidez that good or was Andrade just bad?”

* “Pacheco and Mbilli might make it big someday, but they aren’t there yet. And Berlanga never will be.”

One thing that struck me was how widely the predictions differed from elector to elector. For example, one voter thought that Charlo would win eight of nine fights, losing only to Canelo. But another elector thought that Jermall would lose all nine of his bouts and stated, “Right now, Charlo is a head case. You can’t count on him for anything.”

Another reason for the variation in the electors’ responses is that many of these fighters are in separate promotional universes. Out of 45 possible fights contemplated in the survey, only three (Canelo-Plant, Benavidez-Andrade and Benavidez-Plant) have actually happened.

Also, too few fighters are willing to go in tough these days, so it’s hard to predict how many of these boxers would fare against elite competition. 

Demetrius Andrade’s corner had seen enough after six rounds of damage from David Benavidez (left) in November 2023. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)

Regardless, a consensus emerged among the electors with Benavidez and Canelo separating themselves from the pack and Morrell a clear third followed by Munguia in fourth place. Plant, Andrade and Charlo are almost interchangeable, with Mbilli close behind. Pacheco and Berlanga close out the rear.


View The Ring’s current super middleweight ratings


I don’t vote in the poll. I’m just the administrator. But I’ll note for the record that, were Benavidez and Canelo to fight now, I’d pick Canelo.

Canelo has been fighting professionally for almost 19 years. Inevitably, that takes a toll. But Canelo has more experience fighting against world-class opposition than Benavidez does. He performed better against Caleb Plant than Benavidez did. And the opponents who gave Canelo the most trouble were slick boxers. Benavidez isn’t slick. Benavidez’s greatest strength is his power. And nobody has been able to overpower Canelo yet. 

I don’t know how much longer I’ll say this. But for now, I think Canelo is still No. 1. That said, he won’t help his case if he goes in soft in his next fight.

Thomas Hauser’s email address is [email protected]. His most recent book – MY MOTHER and Meis a personal memoir published by Admission Press that is available for pre-order at Amazon.comIn 2004, the Boxing Writers Association of America honored Hauser with the Nat Fleischer Award for career excellence in boxing journalism. In 2019, Hauser was selected for boxing’s highest honor – induction into the International Boxing Hall of Fame.